Is Marriage Making a Comeback? Why the Divorce Rate Hitting a 50-Year Low Isn’t the Whole Story

Tuesday, JULY 29, 2025.

Once upon a time—say, around 1982—Americans treated marriage like an avocado: you just grabbed one and hoped it wasn’t rotten inside.

Now, it’s more like artisan sourdough from a boutique bakery. Pricey, selective, Instagrammed. And apparently, harder to ruin.

According to a new report from the Institute for Family Studies, divorce is at its lowest rate in 50 years, and the percentage of children living with married parents is finally starting to climb.

The Atlantic even ran a feature titled “Are We Witnessing a Marriage Comeback?” (Wilcox, 2025).

Cue the headlines. Cue the pundits. Cue your divorced aunt forwarding you articles about how “couples are finally doing it right.”

But hold the champagne. This isn’t a comeback tour.

It’s a boutique performance for a smaller, more exclusive audience.

The Divorce Rate Is Down—But Why?

Let’s start with the good news: The U.S. divorce rate is the lowest it’s been since the early 1970s.

Researchers now estimate that only about 40% of first marriages will end in divorce, down from the long-quoted 50% (Wilcox, 2025).

That’s not because marriage is suddenly easier or love has become more durable. It’s because fewer people are marrying, and those who do tend to be older, wealthier, better educated, and more selective.

As sociologist Andrew Cherlin puts it in The Marriage-Go-Round (2009), marriage has become a “capstone” achievement—something you do after you’ve made it, not as a means of making it.

This helps explain why the institution looks more stable: modern marriages are essentially venture-backed relationships—complete with prenups, therapy, and spreadsheeted childrearing schedules.

The couples who are not marrying are disproportionately poorer, less educated, and more economically vulnerable—the very groups that used to benefit most from marriage (McLanahan & Jencks, 2015).

So yes, divorce is down, but so is access to marriage.

The Share of Children in Married Families Is Rising

Here’s a surprise: the percentage of children being raised in two-parent married households has risen from 64% in 2012 to 66% in 2024 (Current Population Survey, 2024).

How can that be if fewer people are marrying?

Two trends are at work:

• Non-marital childbearing has plateaued since the Great Recession.

• Divorced families are less common, so more kids stay in intact families.

While the increase is modest, it suggests that marriage remains a preferred framework for parenting—at least among those who marry in the first place.

A Quiet Revival Among Black Families

Perhaps the most hopeful trend in the IFS report is this: Black families are seeing a modest but measurable marriage revival.

From 2012 to 2024, the percentage of Black children raised in married-parent households rose from 33% to 39%. At the same time, divorce rates among Black couples have dropped, especially among lower-income families (Wilcox et al., 2025).

This shift contradicts long-held media stereotypes and supports more nuanced research on economic conditions, community support, and spiritual infrastructure as factors driving family resilience (Colen, Ramey, & Browning, 2016; Chatters et al., 2002).

These changes don’t come from thin air—they come from hard-earned adaptations within families and communities often ignored by mainstream marriage narratives.

The Rise of the Two-Tier Marriage System

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: Marriage is stabilizing—but only for the privileged.

We’re living in a two-tier system:

Tier One:

Educated, financially secure couples who treat marriage like a startup launch—strategic, optimized, and well-supported.

Tier Two:

Everyone else. For the working poor, those with debt, no childcare, and precarious housing? Marriage is not a realistic or safe bet—it’s a liability.

As Matthew Desmond writes in Poverty, by America (2023), “Marriage becomes a luxury good when basic needs are unmet.”

This emerging divide explains why the national divorce rate is falling even as overall marriage rates are near historic lows. It's not a sign of marriage flourishing for all—it’s a sign of marriage concentrating among the already-flourishing.

Is Marriage Back?

If by “marriage,” you mean:

• A widespread institution across all social classes → No.

• The default context for adult life → No.

• The most stable and preferred setting for raising children among the middle and upper class → Yes.

Wilcox (2025) concludes, “Stable marriage is a norm again, and the way that most people rear the rising generation.” But that norm is stratified. For millions of Americans, marriage still feels like a bridge too far.

So is marriage back? Yes—but only in select zip codes.

Marriage today isn’t dead. It’s premium.

It’s a subscription model with better support, stronger onboarding, and fewer cancellations. But like any premium service, it requires something not everyone has: access.

Be Well, Stay Kind, and Godspeed.

REFERENCES:

Chatters, L. M., Taylor, R. J., Lincoln, K. D., & Schroepfer, T. (2002). Patterns of informal support from family and church members among African Americans. Journal of Black Studies, 33(1), 66–85. https://doi.org/10.1177/002193470203300104

Cherlin, A. J. (2009). The Marriage-Go-Round: The State of Marriage and the Family in America Today. Knopf.

Colen, C. G., Ramey, D. M., & Browning, C. R. (2016). The intersection of race, class, and gender in marriage trends and family stability. Journal of Marriage and Family, 78(3), 734–752. https://doi.org/10.1111/jomf.12287

Current Population Survey. (2024). Annual Social and Economic Supplement. U.S. Census Bureau. https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/cps/cps-asec.html

Desmond, M. (2023). Poverty, by America. Crown Publishing.

McLanahan, S., & Jencks, C. (2015). Was Moynihan right? What happens to the children of unmarried mothers. Education Next, 15(2), 34–40. https://www.educationnext.org/was-moynihan-right/

Wilcox, W. B. (2025, July 29). Are We Witnessing a Marriage Comeback? The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2025/07/marriage-divorce-rate-children-statistics/675428/

Wilcox, W. B., Bailey, G., Stone, L., & Wang, W. (2025, July 29). Is Marriage Back? Divorce is Down, Family Stability is Up. Institute for Family Studies. https://ifstudies.org/blog/is-marriage-back-divorce-is-down-family-stability-is-up